Leading Economic Indicator
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) aggregates ten economic indicators to assess economic health. It typically peaks 11 to 12 months before a recession begins.
Current Assessment
Below -4% threshold
The LEI remains in recessionary territory. The six-month decline is below -4% with diffusion below 50%.
Note: LEI data is proprietary. Updated manually from Conference Board releases.
The 3Ds Framework
Duration: Measures how sustained a downward trend is, with persistent declines potentially indicating systemic economic issues.
Depth: Quantifies the magnitude of index decline, showing the severity of economic contraction.
Diffusion: Assesses how widespread the decline is across different sectors and economic activities.
A recession signal occurs when the six-month decline falls below -4.0% AND the diffusion index dips below 50%.
The Ten Components
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers' new orders for non-defence capital goods (ex aircraft)
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500 stock prices
- Leading Credit Index
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury minus federal funds rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Background
The Conference Board, established in 1916, created the LEI to help policymakers make informed decisions. The index reaches its peak approximately 11 to 12 months before a recession begins its downward trajectory.
Data Source
The full LEI data is proprietary to The Conference Board and requires a licence. Monthly summary reports are published publicly. This indicator is updated manually from those releases.
Credit
The Conference Board, a non-profit business membership and research organisation.